Sprawl in Forsyth County, North Carolina

Public Health 245, Community Assessment

University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

Fall Semester, 2001

Jim Bowles

December 2, 2001

Sprawl in Forsyth County, North Carolina

"Sprawl", as a descriptor of community growth, is a somewhat loose term, without precise, commonly accepted definition.  The term has been applied to a number of conditions defining the relationship between the human population of an area and the physical environment, particularly the built environment.  One concise definition is " (The) pattern of strip development and spread-out low density development in the countryside that leads to a gradual decline in community life and values, and the erosion of the economic base in cities and villages" (Vermont Forum on Sprawl). 

Still, defining "sprawl" is somewhat akin to defining art; we don't know what it is, but we know it when we see it.  Rather than attempting to define the concept, it is probably more useful to take the approach of Anthony Downs (1998), who lists ten traits of sprawl: unlimited outward extension of urban or village centers; leapfrog development; low-density development; fragmentation of land-use controls among many localities; automobiles as the primary form of transportation; no centralized planning of land-use; widespread strip commercial development; great fiscal disparities among localities; segregation of land use types into different zones; reliance on trickle-down effects to provide housing to low-income households.

Historically, the issue of sprawl was discussed in terms of "urban sprawl", the phenomenon of the outward expansion of cities into the surrounding countryside, accompanied by annexation of rural or suburban areas into the city limits.  More recently, the discussion has included the concept of "suburban sprawl", which is characterized by large, low-density housing developments from which residents commute to work and to shopping, recreation and other personal services.  Many of traits described by Downs, and the concepts of both urban and suburban sprawl, apply to current growth patterns in Forsyth County. 

The problems associated with sprawl in Forsyth County are a concern for county residents, and for governmental and non-governmental organizations.  Some efforts are already being made to deal with these issues in Forsyth County.  This paper will briefly describe the patterns of growth in the county, the relationship of sprawl to public health, efforts undertaken to address the issue of sprawl in Forsyth County, and some of the success that other localities have had in dealing with sprawl.

Forsyth County Growth Trends

Forsyth County is located in the so-called "Piedmont Triad" region of North Carolina.  Winston-Salem, the major city in the county and the county seat, makes up one point of the "triad"; Greensboro and High Point, in neighboring Guilford County are the other two.  The Triad region is one of the three largest metropolitan areas in North Carolina.  Forsyth County, with a 2000 census population of 306,607, is the fourth most populous county in the state.  The land area of Forsyth County is approximately 410 square miles, giving the county a population density of just over 747 persons per square mile, the fifth most densely populated county in North Carolina (North Carolina State Data Center).

Winston-Salem, the largest city in the county and the fifth most populous in the state, had a 2000 census population of 185,776.  Other municipal areas in the county and their 2000 populations are Bethania, 354; Clemmons, 13,827; Kernersville, 17,126; Lewisville, 8,826; Rural Hall, 2,464; Tobaccoville, 2,209; and Walkertown, 4,009 (North Carolina State Data Center).  The 2000 census numbers are an increase of almost 30% in the population of Winston-Salem since 1990.  The total municipal population of Forsyth County increased 37% between 1990 and 2000, from 170,950 to 234,591.  This compares with an increase of 15 percent in the total county population, and a decrease of 24% in Forsyth County's non-municipal population.  Table 1 summarizes the population growth in Forsyth County over the last decade.

It is important to note that the decline of the non-municipal population does not represent a migration from rural to urbanized areas in the county.  Rather, the land area of the county's municipalities has grown to include more people (North Carolina State Data Center).  Between 1990 and 2000, the city of Winston-Salem grew from an area of just over 71 square miles to almost 109 square miles, an increase of approximately 54%.  The population increase of the city due to annexation was 26,441, or 63% of the increase between 1990 and 2000.  Kernersville, Clemmons, Lewisville and Walkertown also had significant increases in both municipal area and population due to annexation (See table 1).  The total land area of the five municipal areas mentioned here grew from 95 square miles in 1990 to 148 square miles in 2000.  This is an increase of 56%; these areas now constitute 36% of the land area of Forsyth County.  Maps 1 through 3 provide a picture of the municipal growth in Forsyth County between 1981 and 2000.

As is apparent from table 2, much of the growth in population has been accommodated by development on the outskirts of existing municipalities.   Comparing the population growth to the municipal area growth, it is also apparent that the growth of municipal areas in Forsyth County has been, overall, greater than the population.  This indicates that the population of the county is becoming more spread out through the county. 

 Another indicator that the population is becoming more spread out is the development of large, low-density residential subdivisions in rural areas of the county.   Map 4 shows the location of subdivisions approved by the planning commission between 1990 and 1998.  Many new subdivisions are built without the provision of the physical infrastructure common to the more traditional residential areas typically found within towns and cities.  These subdivisions are less dense, with lot sizes ranging to a few acres per home.  The subdivisions often lack sidewalks and common recreational areas.  The homes often rely on private, individual sewage disposal systems and private wells.

The movement away from Winston-Salem and into the county is not only residential development, but commercial development as well.  According to the City-County Planning Board (2001), a large percentage of the retail and office space in Forsyth County is now located outside of the city limits.  The growth in commercial development is occurring primarily in the western part of the county, where the growth of strip-mall development has been a particular concern of local residents (Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Planning Board).

The population growth of Forsyth County is expected to continue at a moderate pace over the next two decades.  The North Carolina State Data Center projects a growth rate of 12.8% in the county between 2000 and 2010, bringing the population of the county to 345,233.  By 2020, the population is expected to reach 385,079.  Net in-migration is expected to account for about two-thirds of the population growth in the county over the next two decades. 

Along with continued population growth, development will continue to grow outward from existing municipal centers as well.  The North Carolina Department of Transportation has projected the effect of "business as usual" growth in the Piedmont Triad.  Map 5 shows that projection, with "living areas" and "working areas" separately.

The current and projected patterns of growth in Forsyth County meet at least the first part of the Vermont Forum's definition of sprawl; that is, the "pattern of strip development and spread-out low density development in the countryside."  The evidence also indicates that at least several of Downs' traits of sprawl are met: unlimited outward extension of urban or village centers; leapfrog development; low-density development; and, widespread strip commercial development.

The Effects of Sprawl on Community Health

The rate and pattern of growth in Forsyth County has varied effects on the community, and is therefore of concern to a variety of groups.  Historically, planning for and controlling growth has primarily been an issue for local planning agencies.  However, over the last couple of decades, more and more groups, both inside and outside of government have become more concerned with the effects of growth trends--that is, urban/suburban sprawl--on the overall quality of community life.

Many health agencies have been aware of, and affected by, urban sprawl because of their involvement with water and sewer services or because of the need to establish satellite service areas.  However, it appears that the idea of sprawl as a community health problem has only recently become a topic of concern to official health agencies.  Sprawl is having both direct and indirect effects on the health of Forsyth County's citizens.

Perhaps the most obvious effect of sprawl is the need for the expansion of community services and infrastructure.  Roads must be built to accommodate new development, water and sewer service must be provided, and schools must be built or expanded to accommodate new students in new locations. The Winston-Salem Transit Authority currently has a list of 26 priority road projects in Forsyth County with an estimated cost of over $201 million. Although no data could be located for the cost of expanding the current public water and sewer system, the cost of constructing even the water sewer mains over the large geographic area affected by the current and projected growth will be substantially higher than if the service area was more compact. 

Public sewer serves only 64% of the population (City/County Utilities); the rest must rely on private sewage disposal systems.  This fact itself can create other problems.  If private sewage disposal systems are not properly designed, or not properly maintained, reliance on this type of sewage disposal only postpones the day when public sewerage is the only solution to failing on-site sewage disposal systems.  Walkertown is currently installing a public sewer line that will serve 377 homes and two shopping centers and two schools, at a cost of $6.9 million (Frazier, 2001).

The Winston-Salem/Forsyth County School System is proposing expenditures of $64,469,248 for the construction of one new elementary school, one new middle school and two new high schools.  Another $1,733,000 is earmarked for the purchase of land for new school sites in the county.   It cannot be assumed that this entire cost is due to sprawl; the mere growth in population, combined with obsolescence would force some new building.  However, in 1999, some existing schools within the city were occupied at less than 50% capacity, while 300 trailers were being used for temporary classrooms in the outer parts of Forsyth County (City-County Planning Commission, 2001).

Sprawl may impact the poor and working poor more than higher income groups.  One effect of sprawl is the concentration of poverty in some areas, with a concentration of wealth in others.  The median income of Forsyth County is higher than average for North Carolina, but about 11% of county residents have family incomes that fall below the federal poverty guidelines for the county.  The United Way of Forsyth County (1997) has published data on income of residents by zip code.  Large numbers of low-income groups are concentrated in the downtown and East Winston zip code areas in Winston-Salem.  Over one-half of the residents of these two areas had a median after-tax family income below $25,000.  Three zip code areas in the outer parts of the county (Lewisville, Clemmons and Pfafftown) had the highest median incomes in the county, with a median after-tax family income ranging from  $43,625 to $50,222, and fewer than 25% of families with an after-tax income below $25,000.  The areas with the lowest incomes are primarily non-white, while the areas with the highest incomes are 94% to 97% white (United Way of Forsyth County, 1997).

As higher income families leave the central urban area and move to the suburbs, segregation by income and by race creates social disparities.  As jobs and services move to outlying areas, the lower income residents of the county have more difficulty accessing jobs and services, due to lack of reliable transportation.  The Winston-Salem Transit Authority bus service is concentrated in the urban core, and evening and night service is lacking.  The Forsyth County Department of Social Services has identified a lack of transportation as one of the primary barriers to employment for their clients (Hamilton, 2000).  The lack of public transportation is also a serious problem for the new Hispanic population in Forsyth County  (Hispanic Services Coalition, 1999). 

For higher income families who have personal automobiles, the lack of public transportation is not a problem.  However, traffic congestion is a serious problem in the county.  In 1990, there were about 41,045 people commuting into the county, and 20,377 people commuting out of the county for employment (Forsyth County United Way, 1997).  Map 6 provides a picture of regional commuting patterns in the Triad.  As the number of automobiles on the road increase, and the highway infrastructure fails to keep pace, residents are spending more time in their automobiles.  The number of vehicle miles traveled in the county is increasing over three times faster than the population, and the number of vehicle hours traveled is increasing more than four times faster than the population (City-County Planning Board, 2001).

Automobile use affects much more than just the amount of time spent by residents in their automobiles.  The Piedmont Triad region is one of the three metropolitan areas in North Carolina with the highest levels of air pollution.  The air pollutant of most concern in Forsyth County is ozone (smog), which is primarily a result of automobile exhaust.  In 2001, Forsyth County has had 22 days on which the level of ozone exceeded the EPA standards; as a result, the county is at risk of losing federal highway construction funds for noncompliance with air quality standards  (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2001).  On the 22 days of noncompliance, the ozone reached levels that pose a health risk to susceptible populations like children, aerobically active adults, and persons with chronic lung diseases like asthma.

Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department performs routine monitoring of surface water in the Muddy Creek subbasin of the Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basin, the most polluted of the various stream basins within the county and among the state’s watersheds with the highest number of miles with impaired water quality (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2000). The primary sources of water pollution in the county appear to be urban development and discharges from the sewage treatment plants.  The most significant pollutant is total suspended solids (TSS), which occur as a result of soil erosion and run-off carried industrial, commercial and residential waste, particularly during storm water flows.   Metals and nutrients enter surface water from industrial discharges, sewage treatment plan effluent, and storm-water carried wastes and automobile pollution (primarily gasoline and motor oil).  The contamination of surface water threatens the ability of those waters to support aquatic life, and detracts from the aesthetic and recreational uses of those waters.

The preceding paragraphs have mentioned the increase of residential and commercial development in rural areas of the county.  The effect of this development has been discussed in terms of transportation and access to services.  Another direct effect of such development is the loss of green space.  Green space is the name given to undeveloped agricultural and forestal land.  Loss of green space and the changing aesthetics of the landscape have psychological impacts that affect the quality of life of residents and decreases recreational opportunities for residents.  In addition, the loss of green space removes some of the filtering capacity of the soil and vegetation that would remove contaminants from storm water flow before the contaminated water enters streams and lakes.

The type of low-density residential development prevalent in Forsyth County is widening the gap in housing affordability between lower income and upper income residents.   A large proportion of the new housing can be called "up-scale", with prices ranging from $190,000 to $210,000 (Chamber of Commerce, 2001).   A large proportion of the population, primarily low-income residents, and renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing (National Low Income Housing Coalition, 2001).  The problem especially affects the African American population, which makes up 61% of all low-income renters, and 71% of all renters.  In 1995, the county had 5,746 substandard housing units (8.4% of all housing units), only a slight decreased from the 5,983 substandard units, representing 10% of all housing units, that existed in 1985 (United Way of Forsyth County, 1997).

Besides contributing to the housing affordability problem, the type of low-density development that currently represents the bulk of residential development in the county has other effects.  With large lots, and with zoning that separates residential areas from retail and commercial areas, residents are encouraged--in fact almost must--rely on motor vehicle transportation for all trips, from getting to work to running to the nearest store for a loaf of bread.  The loss of green space, the time spent in vehicles, and the lack of sidewalks in new developments may discourage many persons from simple recreational exercise.  At a time when public health authorities are encouraging people to get even simple minimal exercise, like walking 20 minutes a day, the design of our developments is discouraging the practice.  Lack of sufficient exercise, of course, is contributing to the current national increase in obesity, and to the incidence of chronic diseases like heart disease, stroke and diabetes.

Forsyth County is suffering from the effects of sprawl, a fact that has been recognized by the local government, as well as by the residents of the county (City-County Planning Commission, 2001).  It should be apparent that sprawl affects the social, physical and mental health of county residents in many ways.  While few, if any, residents would wish for growth to stop altogether, it is obvious that if the county is to remain a thriving community, and an attractive, healthy place to live, then a solution to the problem of sprawl must be found.

Smart Growth

Strategies that aim to control sprawl and the resulting problems are typically referred to as “smart growth.”  The term denotes a compromise between the extremes of “no growth” and “uncontrolled growth.”  The concept implies acceptance that some growth and development is necessary for an area to maintain economic health, but that the negative impacts of growth can be prevented or ameliorated.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has developed ten "smart growth principles" that summarize both the tasks involved and the goals of smart growth:

1. Mix land uses.
2. Take advantage of compact building design.
3. Create a range of housing opportunities and choices.
4. Create walkable neighborhoods.
5. Foster distinctive, attractive communities with a strong sense of place.
6. Preserve open space, farmland, natural beauty, and critical environmental areas.
7. Strengthen and direct development toward existing communities.
8. Provide a variety of transportation choices.
9. Make development decisions predictable, fair and cost effective.
10. Encourage community and stakeholder collaboration in development decisions.

It may be tempting, after reviewing the EPA list, to believe that solving the problem of sprawl should be fairly straightforward.  One approach to undertaking the solution would be simply copying what another locality has successfully done to solve the problem.  However, examining the approaches taken by other localities, and the outcomes of those approaches, indicates that solving the problem of sprawl, or achieving "smart growth", will not be a simple matter.

Portland, Oregon

Portland, Oregon is often cited in the smart growth literature as a success story in the battle against sprawl.  During the 1960's and 1970's, the Portland region's population doubled in size from 656,000 to 1,030,000.  The population growth fueled low-density suburban development, leading to a decaying downtown area. During the 1980's the number of vehicle miles traveled increased four times faster than the population, and traffic became the number one concern of residents (World Resources Institute).

In 1979, in response to a statewide growth-management law, the Portland area adopted an "Urban Growth Boundary" (UGB) that encompassed 24 cities and 3 counties, an area of 232,000 acres or 364 square miles.  An urban growth boundary is a line drawn outside of the existing city limits that encompasses an area determined to be "urbanizable."  Zoning and planning policies are implemented to restrict development to within the UGB; for example, no urban services, such as public sewer, are extended beyond the boundary.  The limit of the boundary is calculated by estimating the amount of vacant land needed for development in an area, and then drawing a line to encompass that calculated need.  Vacant land within the city must be included in the calculation (Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development).  Outside of the UGB, development is discouraged by increasing the minimum lot size for building--in the Portland area, as high as 240 acres per home (Liberty, 1997).

The Oregon approach to sprawl has had some notable successes in the Portland area (Liberty, 1997).  For example, the population density in the urban area has increased from 3,734 persons per square mile in 1990 to 3,885 persons per square mile in 1994, indicating that much of the population increase has been absorbed in urban areas.  Higher densities decrease the cost of providing public utilities.   By comparison, Atlanta, Georgia, an area roughly comparable to Portland in respect to population growth, has seen urban density decrease.  If the patterns of development in Atlanta and Portland had been the same, it has been calculated that Portland would have lost 93,000 acres of farmland and forest.  In 1996, 29 percent of residential development in Portland was infill and redevelopment of urban areas.  The average residential lot size has decreased from 12,800 square feet to just over 8,000 square feet since the UGB was drawn, indicating more efficient use of land and helping to hold home prices stable. 

Mass transit has been an important factor in Portland's effort to control sprawl (World Resources Institute).  In 1997, the Portland area decided against adding a beltway road around the southwest part of the city; plans for road development over the next 40 years include an average of only one mile of highway per year.  Between 1990 and 1995, public transportation use increased 4.4%, while in similar urban areas, the use of public transportation declined an average of 9.1%.  A second light rail commuter line opened in 1998, with 6000 new homes permitted or under construction along the line.  These new developments are oriented to public transportation, and it is projected that one-third of the person living in those developments will get to work by walking, bicycle or public transportation.  The use of public transportation in Portland has undoubtedly contributed to the currently good air quality in the area, although a strict vehicle emissions equipment testing and maintenance program has also been an important factor.

Between the mid-1980's and the mid-1990's, the population of the Portland urban area increased 26%, while job growth increased 43% and average income increased 72%.  Property taxes decreased 29%, while government revenues increased 34%, largely as the result of special taxes.  The number of vehicle miles traveled increased only 2% (contrasted with an increase in Atlanta of 17%) while single-occupant vehicle use decreased by 13% and commute time decreased by 9%.  Air quality improved significantly.  The area had a decrease of 86% in the number of days with high ozone levels (Nelson, 2000).

Although the successes of the urban growth boundary approach are apparent, and impressive, there have also been some problems.  A common complaint is the cost of housing (Liberty, 1997; Staley, Jefferson & Mildner, 1999; Nelson, 2000).  Between 1990 and 1995, the cost of land in Portland increased nearly four times faster than inflation.    The median home price in Portland increased from $79,700 in 1990 to $129,000 in 1996.  On the other hand, the cost of housing, as a percent of income, remained steady from 1986 to 1996, at about 20%.  The largest increase in housing prices in the Portland area occurred in poor inner city neighborhoods.  In March 1992, the average sale price in North Portland, a low-income working class neighborhood, was $44,500.  In March 1997, the average price was $102,000, a 150% increase.  In the high-income area of Lake Oswego, the increase for the same period was only 31%.  The successful attempt to control sprawl in Portland appears to be having the unintended consequence of replacing urban decay in poor neighborhoods with gentrification.  The effect of both is similar, a widening gap in the quality of life between the low-income and the high-income populations.

The urban growth boundary approach to urban sprawl has continued to be controversial in Oregon.  In 1982, 1995 and 1997 serious statewide efforts were made to rescind the laws.  Developers are unhappy with the restrictions and the increased costs of development.  Fortunately for those who favor the approach, an influential non-governmental organization, the "1000 Friends of Oregon", has arisen.  This organization has mounted educational and lobbying campaigns in support of smart growth, and has supported continuance of the current approach, while pointing out shortcomings.  The Oregon Farm Bureau and the Oregon Forestry Industry Council have supported the 1000 Friends of Oregon in their efforts. 

Portland's approach to curbing sprawl is significantly strengthened by the state law requiring the urban growth boundary approach.  Portland's effort is further strengthened by the rather unique approach to government.  The region has a directly elected Metropolitan Portland Council, with its own home-rule charter, that governs the region within the urban growth boundaries (Liberty, 1997).

Boulder, Colorado

Like Portland, Boulder is often cited as an example of a successful effort to control sprawl.  The history and results of this effort have been well described by Pollock (1998) and the League of Women Voters of Boulder Valley (1998).  The city of Boulder is the main municipality and the county seat of Boulder County.  The population of the city was 96,000 in 1998.  Although much smaller than Portland, Boulder in the 1960's and 1970's was experiencing similar negative impacts of rapid growth. 

Boulder's approach to controlling urban sprawl has primarily been to limit the extension of public services beyond a "Blue Line" that was initially established in 1959 to define the limit of public water service.  In 1978, the city and county adopted a joint comprehensive plan to limit the city from extending water and sewer service outside specific boundaries, and to limit the county from approving new subdivisions that would need urban levels of services and facilities.  Additionally, beginning in the 1960's the city began to purchase and preserve undeveloped green space around the urban limits to form the outer extent of intended urban development (Pollock, 1998).

The city of Boulder's approach has definitely been successful in achieving a limit on the growth of the urban boundary.  The service area concept has created an identifiable urban/rural edge, defined by the green belt.  Development has focused within the city, largely through redevelopment of underutilized areas and through infill development.  The cost of providing public infrastructure has been minimized (Pollock, 1998).  Ozone levels in Boulder have remained good, even though the area is strongly influenced by the air quality of Denver (Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment).

Like Portland, the control of sprawl in Boulder has led to problems as well improvements.  Part of the problem for Boulder is the very success at controlling growth and the area's reputation as a good place to live.  The population of the county has grown from 225,000 in 1990 to over 272,000 in 1997, an increase of 21%.  Employment in the county grew from 128,000 to 164,000, an increase of 24%, over the same period.  In the city of Boulder, there are 86,000 jobs, an average of one job for every 1.1 person (Boulder League of Women Voters; Pollock, 1998)

Obviously, the demand for employees cannot be met by the residents of the city, so the workers are commuting into the city from the surrounding areas.  Vehicle registrations grew from 173,000 to 214,000, an increase of 24% from 1990 to 1997.  Park-and-ride lots in the surrounding area are frequently filled beyond capacity (League of Women Voters of Boulder County, 1998).  The increased traffic may once again threaten the air quality of the region.

Housing costs and affordability are also a problem in Boulder and the response to increased costs--moving farther from the city--has resulted in a shift of the sprawl problem from the city of Boulder to surrounding municipalities (League of Women Voters of Boulder Valley, 1998; Pollock, 1998).  Between 1990 and 1997, the average sale price of a single-family home in Boulder rose from $124,000 to $236,00, an increase of about 90%.  In 1997, only 3.3% of new homes Boulder County sold for under $125,000.  Forty percent of the housing units in the county are rental units, and the median monthly rent for a two bedroom home was $917, out of the realm of affordability for families earning less than $33,000 per year--a group into which almost a third of Boulder family's fall.  The housing affordability problem has forced residents out of Boulder and into nearby communities.  In Superior, the population grew from 225 in 1990 to 3,377 in 1996.  Superior has practically no jobs and no tax base.  The imbalance in the region between jobs and housing has contributed to the problems of traffic congestion, lack of affordable housing and school facility needs.

Application  to Forsyth County

Portland and Boulder have shown that setting limits on urban growth can be a successful approach to limiting outward growth of urban areas.  They also demonstrate that drawing a line does not solve all problems of urban sprawl, and in fact can create other problems to be solved.  Urban growth limits and smart growth are not synonymous, although creating a growth boundary may be a necessary first step in achieving smart growth.  In Forsyth County, an urban growth boundary can be readily delineated from the Legacy Plan documents showing the currently urbanized areas of the county (see map 7). 

The Legacy Plan document was developed with significant community input.  The document describes a vision of what the community should look like and how the community should be functioning in the year 2015.  The document spells out a number of agreed upon goals for the community that, if successfully addressed, will alleviate some of the effects of the current patterns of growth in the county. Although the Legacy Plan is a good foundation for beginning to implement smart growth policies, it is more of a vision statement than a plan of how to do so.  The county and its citizens will still have the difficult task of designing and implementing a set of practical tasks to solve the problem.

After placing restrictions on outward growth, the county will have to actively seek to apply the principles of smart growth outlined by the EPA.  Achieving those principles will likely require a variety of approaches, perhaps similar to those taken by Portland.  Although the application of smart growth principles is relatively new, many communities across the nation are attempting to apply the principles in an attempt to solve problems created by sprawl.  A few of the approaches are mentioned below.  However, because the movement is relatively new, the ultimate outcome of most programs is still uncertain.

By placing strong zoning restrictions on outward growth, the county can encourage infill development and redevelopment of underutilized land, including brownfields, within the urban areas.  Such zoning restrictions could include large minimum lot sizes for residential and commercial development outside of urban growth areas, making such development of such areas less economically attractive.  Altering current "exclusionary" zoning ordinances that prevent the integration of retail and commercial development within residential developments can encourage development of neighborhoods that require less automobile travel for errands (Fannie Mae Foundation, 2001).  Zoning that encourages compact residential development, with smaller lots but with more common green space, can reduce the costs of providing utilities while preserving open spaces and creating additional recreational areas.  More compact design of subdivisions will help to make the inclusion of amenities like sidewalks and street lamps more economically feasible in newer subdivisions.  Communities that have enacted similar changes to zoning laws include Austin, Texas and Salt Lake City, Utah (National Governors Association).

This type of subdivision development may initially help to hold down housing costs, but as the Portland example shows, over time the lower income residents of an area may be pushed out of their own neighborhoods by rising prices.  One successful approach is to require that new development include some percentage of low-income housing.  This approach has been used in Loudoun County, Virginia and Silver Spring, Maryland; in both communities, developers must meet the requirement for low-income units as a condition of subdivision approval.  New Jersey has had success at encouraging low-cost housing rehabilitation in low-income neighborhoods by implementing a new building code for housing rehabilitation that reduces the need to bring the home into full compliance with the current building code.  Compliance of newer requirements is tied directly to amount and the specific type of renovation activity undertaken in the home.  Rehabilitation projects increased 12% in the first year and another 56% in the second year following enactment of the Rehabilitation Subcode (Fannie Mae Foundation).

The elements of smart growth discussed above can probably be implemented in most communities.  Forsyth County should explore and implement similar elements of sprawl control, as far as current laws allow.  However, two serious issues remain to be addressed.

Transportation issues are perhaps the most serious, and the most difficult of sprawl-related problems to alleviate.  In communities like Portland, commuter rail systems have had a positive impact on the problem, and efforts are underway to bring light rail transportation to the Forsyth County area (Winston-Salem Forsyth County Plannning Board).  However, it is likely that any area must have a critical mass of residents in order to supply enough riders to make light rail systems economically viable.  The Portland metropolitan area has many times the number of residents that live in Forsyth County, or even the Piedmont Triad area.  Light rail service for the Triad region may be successful if the routes concentrate on connecting residential centers with work centers and retail centers across the region.  However, Forsyth County should also explore the possibility of establishing high-speed bus service between the same areas, and increasing the number of buses available in area where public transportation is likely to be more heavily used, as in the downtown area.  Boulder's bus service has successfully increased ridership with this approach (National Governors Association).

One reason for the success of Portland's approach is the state laws requiring and supporting the implementation of urban growth boundaries.  The laws allowed Portland to adopt new zoning codes and implement taxes to support local efforts.  North Carolina, as a modified Dillon Rule state, does not provide the same opportunities to its localities.  Forsyth County will have to lobby for permission to change exclusionary zoning policies, adapt local building codes, and raise funding for local efforts to support smart growth.  (Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, 2000).

Both the Portland and the Boulder examples also show that stopping sprawl is not simply a local matter.  Without regional cooperation, when one local government implements smart growth policies, neighboring localities may suffer.  As the Brookings Institution report (Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, 2000) points out, although North Carolina has several regional types of official or semi-official regional organizations, the areas served by these organizations are not always the same, and are not necessarily organized in the best manner to provide regional solutions to urban sprawl.  For example, the Piedmont Economic Development Region includes Alamance, Caswell, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, Guildford, Montgomery, Randolph, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry and Yadkin Counties.  The Greensboro--Winston-Salem-High Point metropolitan statistical area, which is the real epicenter of urban sprawl in the region, does not include Surry, Rockingham, Caswell, and Montgomery Counties.  Surry, Yadkin, Stokes, Forsyth and Davie Counties make up the Northwest Piedmont Council of Governments, while the rest of the counties in the economic development region make up the Piedmont Triad Council of Governments.  Such a lack of alignment does not make regional cooperation on an issue as all-encompassing as sprawl easy.

Grass roots and non-governmental support for smart growth policies is also crucial, as is consensus building among stakeholders.  Governmental agencies will need to identify organizations, like the Sierra Club, that already are making strong anti-sprawl educational and lobbying effort at all levels of government to assist with educating the public, agency officials, and politicians.  The development community, neighborhood coalitions and nongovernmental service organizations need to be consulted for their ideas about what measures they are willing to support to achieve smart growth and to begin coalition building.   In fact, a poll shows that Americans have more confidence in neighborhood organizations and civic groups to make sound decisions about land use issues than they have in governments or private developers (Belden, Russonello & Stewart, 2000).  The health department can play a key role by keeping the public informed about the issues of sprawl that relate to health concerns.

As Downs (2001) describes, smart growth means trade-offs between conflicting desires of both organizations and individuals.  For instance governments may want to encourage growth for economic reasons, but see the need to limit the negative effects.  Although polling indicates that Americans state that they favor increased spending on public transportation, Americans also seem reluctant to give up their personal automobiles in order to use such transportation.  Social marketing may be at least part of the solution.  A potentially useful social marketing tool has been developed for the Jacksonville, Florida area (Jacksonville Community Council, Inc, 2001).  The "Quality of Life Project" is a project of the Jacksonville Community Council, Inc. and is supported financially by both the City of Jacksonville and the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce.  The project tracks 86 measurable indicators of the quality of life relating to nine major elements:  education, economy, natural environment, social environment, culture and recreation, health, government and politics, mobility, and public safety.  The annual report of progress is a method of keeping the public and other stakeholders informed about key determinants of community health, and of highlighting where community efforts need to be redirected.

Summary

Forsyth County is suffering from the symptoms of sprawl--the uncontrolled growth of development outward from core urban areas.  Sprawl in the county is having a negative effect on the community health.  The answer to the problem lies in the principles of smart growth, and there are examples of how efforts to apply smart growth principles have been used in other communities.  Forsyth County needs to take active steps to adopt the principles of smart growth, building on the Legacy Plan vision document for the community.

References

Belden, Russonello & Stewart.  (2000).  National survey on growth and land development.  Retrieved November 28, 2001 from http://www.smartgrowthamerica.com/poll.pdf.

Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy.  (2000).  Adding it up:  Growth trends and policies in North Carolina.  Washington, DC:  Brookings Institution.

Chamber of Commerce.  (2001).  2001-2002 Guide to Winston-Salem.  Winston-Salem, NC:  Chamber of Commerce.

City-County Planning Board.  (2001).  Legacy:  A development guide for the new century in Winston-Salem and Forsyth County.  Winston-Salem, NC:  Forsyth County.

City-County Utilities.  (nd).  Water and Sewer Division.  Retrieved November 14, 2001 from http://www.cityofws.org/utilities/h20sewer.html.

Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Air Pollution Control Division.  (n.d.) retrieved November 28, 2001 from http://apcd.state.co.us/ozone/

Downs, A.  (1998, May).  The costs of sprawl—and alternative forms of growth.  Speech presented at CTS Transportation Research Conference, Minneapolis, MN.  Retrieved November 28, 2001 from http://www.cts.umn.edu/trg/adowns.html

Downs, A.  (2001).  What does ‘smart growth’ really mean?  Planning Magazine, April 2000.  Retrieved November 26, 2001 from http://www.planning.org/PUBS/plng01/april012.htm

FannieMae Foundation.  (2000).  Housing facts and findings.  Retrieved November 28, 2001 from http://www.fanniemaefoundation.org/programs/hff/v2i4-sidebar.shtml

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Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department.  (2001).  Smog in the Triad—2001 update. Volume 4, November.

Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department.  (2000).  2000 Environmental Quality Report.  Winston-Salem, NC:  Forsyth County.

Hamilton, A. (2000).  Work First Program Plan, 2001-2003.  Winston-Salem, NC: Department of Social Services.

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League of Women Voters of Boulder Valley.  (1998).  Will success spoil Boulder County?  Growth management and regional planning in Boulder County.  Retrieved November 30, 2001 from League of Women Voters of Boulder Valley Web site:  http://bcn.boulder.co.us/lwv/success

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North Carolina State Data Center. http://demog.state.nc.us

Oregon Department of Environmental Quality.  (n.d.) Air quality.  Retrieved December 1, 2001 from http://www.deq.state.or.us/

Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, 1995.  What is an Urban Growth Boundary?  Retrieved November 26, 2001 from http://darkwing.uoregon.edu/~pppm/landuse/UGB.html

Pollock, P.  (1998).  Controlling sprawl in Denver:  Benefits and pitfalls.  Proceedings of the 1998 National Planning Conference.  Retrieved November 29, 2001 from http://www.asu.edu.caed/proceedings98/Pollock/pollock.html

Sierra Club.  (2000).  Fall 2000 sprawl report.  Retrieved December 1, 2001 from Sierra Club Web site:  http://sierraclub.org/sprawl/50statesurvey.asp

Staley, S. R., Edgens, J.G. & Mildner, G.C.S.  (1999).  Urban-growth boundaries, smart growth and housing affordability.  Retrieved November 16, 2001 from   http://www.naiop.org/development/winter99/story12.htm

Stoel, T.B., Jr.  (1999).  Reining in urban sprawl.  Environment, May, 1999.  Retrieved November 14, 2001 from http://findarticles.com

United Way of Forsyth County.  (1997).  Faces of Forsyth:  Indicators of human services.  Winston-Salem, NC:  United Way.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Development, Community & Environment Division.  (n.d.).  About smart growth.  Retrieved November 26, 2001 from EPA Web site:  http://www.epa.gov/livability/about_sg.htm

Vermont Forum on Sprawl. (n.d.) Retrieved November 28, 2001 from  http://www.vtsprawl.org/index3.htm

Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools.  (2001).  Bond Proposal 2001: Summary.  Retrieved November 28, 2001 from http://mts.admin.wsfcs.k12.nc.us/admn/Bonds2001/bonds1.html

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Appendix 1:  Tables

Data source:  North Carolina Center for Statistics

Data source:  North Carolina Center for Statistics.

Appendix 2:  Maps

                                                                                                            Map 2

                      Map 3

Map 5

Sources for Maps

Maps 1-3:  Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Planning Board.  The Legacy Plan Slide Show. http://www.co.forsyth.nc.us/CCPB/Legacyslideshowfinal.PDF

Maps 4 & 7:  Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Planning Board.  The Legacy Plan. http://www.co.forsyth.nc.us/CCPB/Legacy2/pdf

Maps 5 & 6:  Piedmont Authority for Regional Transportation. http://www.partnc.org